2025 NBA playoff odds: Can Warriors overcome Rockets?

Golden State didn’t make it easy on itself, but regardless, it has reached the postseason. 

The Warriors finished the NBA regular season losing two out of their last three — the two losses came at home and one came at the hands of the tanking San Antonio Spurs — forcing them into the Play-In Tournament for the fourth time in five years. 

Steph Curry & Co. then squeaked by Memphis on Tuesday night, winning 121-116 and earning the seventh seed in the Western Conference playoffs. 

The Warriors’ reward? A first-round date with the second-seeded Houston Rockets. 

That’s not such a bad outcome for Golden State, however, considering it beat Houston three out of five times in the regular season, including twice on the Rockets’ home floor. 

Can Golden State move past the Rockets and book a date with the winner of Lakers–Timberwolves?

The odds say most likely.

After their win over the Grizzlies on Tuesday, the Warriors opened as -200 favorites in their series with the Rockets, who opened as +165 underdogs.

The Over/Under total games for the Warriors-Rockets series is set at 5.5 (Over -175, Under +145), and the Warriors are +280 to win in six games.

Houston is +475 to win in seven games and the Warriors are also +475 to win in five games, followed by Golden State at +550 to win in seven and +650 to sweep the Rockets. 

In other words, Golden State is heavily favored.

However, FOX Sports NBA analyst Ric Bucher thinks the opposite should be true, mainly due to Curry dealing with a thumb injury on his shooting hand, among other things. 

He explained why he thinks the Warriors’ run will be short-lived on Wednesday’s episode of “The Facility.”

“I just look at the group around [Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler]. You’re relying on Brandin Podziemski to give you big minutes. You’ve got Quinten Post out there. You got Gui Santos. You to Buddy Hield, who has never been a postseason performer. 

” … Jimmy and Steph can still do it in big moments, but I’ve seen Steph compromised, with better teams, not be able to finish the deal. And this is not a great team.”

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